Survivorship Bias

Another author’s talk. Another conference panel. Another interview. Again and again, we’re treated to stories of success. We hear about the query letter that landed an author an agent. About the chance encounter that led to a guest post that went viral and launched a career. About the debut novel that sold at auction. For a high six-figure advance, of course.

And, of course, every success story needs its share of adversity overcome. The bigger the success, the bigger usually the adversity. The message is clear: Everybody can succeed if only they apply themselves. If you’re not succeeding, you’re not trying. You must not want it bad enough.

Is it any wonder that so many of us think there’s something wrong with us? That we’re not good enough, not tough enough, not smart enough, not enough? The proof’s out there: Everybody else is making it; we’re the only ones left behind. The failures.

Bullshit. We see the cream of the crop. The few lucky ones who, through their own efforts, yes, but also through serendipitous circumstances, are enjoying a measure of success. After all, it’s the published authors who speak at conferences, not the ones who have been trying to land an agent for years. It’s survivorship bias at work.

We write a good story. We learn the marketing and the platform-building, we check all the right boxes. Success, though, isn’t guaranteed. We might toil for years, even decades, and never have the success that other – and maybe lesser – writers have. We might get envious, resentful, and frustrated, but that doesn’t accomplish a damn thing other than to make us miserable.

We cannot make our self-worth contingent on other people’s decisions and judgements. We must instead derive it from embodying our values and putting our best effort into those things we can actually control.

If we keep writing, keep practicing and improving at our chosen craft, and if we do it consistently and joyfully, we might still be writing, still improving, long after the latest phenom has flamed out. We might not only survive but thrive – and find success deep within ourselves.

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